Putin is a chess player: Why so many predicted the wrong outcome - Writing Wednesday
Hello everybody and welcome back to another blog post,
I was listening to another one of Professor Jordan B Peterson's interviews the other day. This time it was with a historian called Professor Frederick Kagan and the pair discussed the unfolding situation in Ukraine. It was quite interesting because although Kagan had studied Russia's deep and complex history in a huge amount of detail, he actually admitted on the podcast that he had made the wrong prediction about Putin and his war with Ukraine. Although Kagan correctly predicted that should Putin actually invade Ukraine, he would be faced with many problems and challenges that would begin to overwhelm the Russian forces, he didn't actually believe that Putin would actually invade the country as he eventually did, in the first place. To be honest, I've heard many similar stories. My mum said that she was listening to an interview on the radio recently where this woman discussed the general emotions that were displayed by many among the Russian community at the moment with regards to the war. The woman said that she had a Russian friend in the UK, who had been teaching Russian history to some students. She said that before the war, her friend was quite passionate about Russian history and she wanted to disseminate its wonders with as many people as possible. It was only recently that she felt ashamed to do so and fell into a deep state of depression because Putin was fighting a war that she didn't believe in. Apparently she said she never expected Putin to invade Ukraine and was terribly shocked by his actions. To be honest, so was I. I knew Putin had tried to threaten the West on many occasions, but I didn't think he would go to such lengths. So why is it that so many people predicted the wrong outcome? To me, the answer is quite simple and this follows on from what Kagan eventually goes on to say in the interview. For years now, Putin has been testing the Ukrainian defences, attempting to undermine them militarily by launching missiles over the borders. He has also attempted to test Ukraine by gaslighting the country via state media, claiming to the Russian people that the country had always been rightfully theirs. Putin, in my opinion, never intended to invade Ukraine at the end of February, he was just testing the border as he had always done. But in and among the testing, he spotted an opportunity to go one step further when it seemed as though the sanctions that the West was going to put in place in response to any potential invasion, was not going to be enough to deter him from invading. So he mobilised his military and just at the point where people thought he was not going to go further, because his troops were already there, he caught them all by surprise and invaded Ukraine. This explains why he is now having so much trouble with internal Ukrainian resistance because he never intended to invade and his impulsive actions led to very poor planning on his part. And in the end, it turns out that the economic sanctions such as ejecting Russian oligarchs from SWIFT, did end up having an impact on the Russian war effort. I think now everyone realises that Putin could never be trusted in the first place. He was an ex-KGB spy master, who, although was never a committed communist, had also never really lost the ideals of glory that the Soviet empire had once displayed on the world stage. I remember in one of my history lessons at secondary school, my teacher told us that Putin's intentions were never honourable and we can certainly see that today. Putin has ordered his troops to bomb maternity hospitals in Mariupol, and he is committing many war crimes and atrocities which should later be condemned and brought to justice. However, thankfully, it's 2022 and the younger generation has different ideals to Putin so even in Russia, people are resisting. It's the younger generation that has come through now, not the older generation. Seeing that woman attempt an anti-war protest on Russian state controlled television, just proves how much Russia doesn't want this war. We just have to continue to remain hopeful that people's protests will end this war, even though there will inevitably be a lot of suffering along the way as there already has been.
What do you think will happen next with Russia and Ukraine? Let me know in the comments below and I'll be sure to reply to them. I ♡ hearing from you!
Thanks for the insightful take on the conflict. Do you think that if Russia takes Ukraine it will to try take more neighbouring countries as a sort of new Eastern Block? In theory, those who joined NATO like Poland should be off-limits, but since open conflict with Russia is the last thing anyone wants, it would be hard to say what would happen. Either way, it is a scary thought...
ReplyDeleteThank you Harry. I doubt Russia would continue its war across other Eastern European countries, whether Russia succeeds in taking Ukraine or not, because of how costly Ukraine has already been for Putin. However, as Putin has already demonstrated, he could feel compelled to go to such lengths and invade a NATO ally like Poland. So yes, military intervention with regards to NATO would be taken into consideration in that case (Initiating Article 3 - the idea of collective defence). Although I still believe NATO would realistically seek diplomacy first, since you're right, no one wants another world war and most countries have already suffered enough economically under the pandemic. And yes it is a scary thought indeed - Especially since this is all happening so close to home.
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